This decision takes off the table the prospect for Trump to fill the Fed governor seat to be vacated this coming week by Adriana Kugler with a recess appointment, which would bypass Senate confirmation.

There’s hand to hand combat over who pays the tariffs. The outcome of this fight could shape economic activity in the second half of the year.

Good post here on the tradeoff between timeliness and accuracy.

RT @TopadoDuran: The CES survey is still one of the most comprehensive and timely employment indicators available, grounded in sound statis…

NEWS: Fed governor Adriana Kugler is resigning effective next Friday.

Powell referred six times at a Wednesday news conference to "downside risks" in the labor market, suggesting realized weakness could build a case for rate cuts despite a general view that conditions were solid. Then came Friday’s big payroll revisions.

It won't get much attention given how the revisions show a much slower pace of job growth than previously reported, but... The index of aggregate weekly payrolls (a good monthly proxy for nominal income growth as it correlates well with nominal GDP growth) was up 5.3% on the year in July, up from 4.5% in June, as hours worked ticked higher and hourly earnings growth was steady. The 12-month rate has been in a tight range between 4.5% and 5.3% over the past year, close to the pre-pandemic norm. The three-month annualized rate (which has been noisy) rebounded 4.6% in July from a (downwardly revised) 2.8% in June, which had been the lowest of the post-pandemic expansion.

Unrounded, the unemployment rate in July was 4.248%, which is the highest since October 2021. It was 4.244% in May.

The private sector added 52,000 jobs on average over the three months ended July, the lowest such figure since August 2024 (46,000). Six-month average private-sector job growth was 85,000 in July, near the low of 84,000 seen in October 2024 and June 2025

The Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates steady, despite dissents from two members of its rate-setting committee who were appointed by President Trump. Trump has been pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates, but Powell has expressed concerns about tariffs and inflation. @GeoffRBennett speaks to @NickTimiraos for more.