September 15 - September 19 Macroeconomic Major Events Summary: Interest Rate Meeting! Rate Cut! Dot Plot! Powell's Speech! This article uses Beijing time UTC+8 as the timeline! Tuesday, September 16, 20:30 US August Retail Data Interpretation: Retail data is the only important data before the interest rate meeting, with current expectations at 0.2%, significantly lower than the previous value. This single data point indicates a decline in consumer market activity, economic slowdown, and signs of a soft landing. However, considering the current high inflation and sticky inflation phase, will the market carry stagflation expectations? This is key, as it depends on how the specific data is interpreted by the market, or how various institutions and professionals guide the market's understanding. Thursday, September 18, 02:00 Federal Reserve September Rate Decision, 02:00 Federal Reserve 2025 Third Dot Plot 02:30 Federal Reserve Press Conference, Powell's Speech Interpretation: Currently, the probability of a 20 basis point rate cut in September is 96.4%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 3.6%. The probability of a rate cut in September is basically "locked in"; on the day of the interest rate meeting, the important aspect is not the announcement of the September rate cut, but the dot plot. The market's focus on current policy has shifted from whether there will be a rate cut in September or how many basis points to how future rates will be set. Currently, the mainstream market expectation is for three rate cuts in 2025, occurring in September, October, and December, each by 25 basis points. The market will use the dot plot to more clearly assess the overall path of future rate cuts, especially for Q4 of 2025. The focus of Powell's speech will be on the market's judgment of the economy following the rate decision and expectations for the future rate path, further corroborated by Powell's remarks. ...