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the left curve understanding you need to know of rates/get into your mind is that the front end of the curve largely trades based on fed expectations, long end of the curve usually closer to growth expectations
its why the whole "powell needs to cut for mortgages" is non-sensical
but also it is pretty clear he's definitely late now with a weak labor market

1.8. klo 20.44
US TWO-YEAR YIELDS ON TRACK TO POST LARGEST DAILY FALL SINCE APRIL, LAST DOWN13.6 BPS AT 3.815%
like this is pretty insane. powell just been going up meeting after meeting "the labor market is strong" and it's not

1.8. klo 20.43
Brutal. If you exclude these two categories, job growth has been running negative for three straight months

@J_PMoregain yeah begs the question where is this data coming from, how does powell and the fed not have it / how were they not looking at it, and why are there these huge revisions

1.8. klo 21.09
“It’s somewhat amazing how you can have a sitting Fed Chair intimate the strength in labor one day and receive these numbers a few days later.”
- Amerivest
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