$IN Valuation Model with Realistic FDV Scenarios @Infinit_Labs has already onboarded 174K+ users pre-core launch. Based on usage forecasts and standard DeFi valuation models, here’s a prediction by @the_smart_ape at potential FDV at token launch. Conservative floor: $27M FDV Realistic base case: $135M FDV Upside: $270M+ with growth or higher fee share 1. MAU Scenarios: •Bear: 100K •Base: 500K •Bull: 1M 2. Assumptions: •$100 avg. txn volume •10 txns/user/month •0.3% avg. protocol fee → $3 revenue/user/month → $36/user/year 3. Protocol Revenue: •100K MAUs → $3.6M/year •500K MAUs → $18M/year •1M MAUs → $36M/year Assume 50% of revenue goes to $IN holders. 4. FDV with 15x Revenue Multiple: •100K MAUs → $54M FDV → $27M to holders •500K MAUs → $270M FDV → $135M to holders •1M MAUs → $540M FDV → $270M to holders Use this model to estimate the airdrop value for top Yappers, e.g., 5% of supply at $135M FDV = $6.75M distributed. Divide based on rank. Infinit just need consistent usage and monetization to justify strong fundamentals.
The Smart Ape 🔥
The Smart Ape 🔥5.8. klo 16.25
If $IN had launched back in January 2025, it would’ve started at a $1B FDV. The market is less favorable now, but we can still estimate @Infinit_Labs future FDV with a model. So far, Infinit has already onboarded 174K+ users, and that’s before all its core features were live. So it’s reasonable to project a future range of 100K to 1M monthly active users (MAUs). So we can consider 3 scenarios: + 100K MAUs + 500K MAUs + 1M MAUs We can assume: + $100 avg. volume per transaction + 10 transactions per user per month (this is a conservative estimate) Infinit charges fees between 0.2% and 0.5% depending on strategy complexity, so we’ll use an average fee of 0.3%. From this, we can calculate protocol-level revenue. This is total revenue captured by Infinit, not necessarily what's distributed to $IN holders. We don’t yet know the exact percentage of fees that will be shared with $IN holders. To stay conservative, let’s assume 50% of the protocol revenue will go to token holders. (In reality, it may be closer to 100%, but 50% is a safer base case.) In DeFi, it’s common to value tokens based on a multiple of annualized revenue. Early-stage projects usually trade at 10x revenue. More mature or hyped protocols can go up to 30x. Since the AI sector is highly speculative, a 15x multiple seems like a reasonable middle ground. With that in mind, we can estimate the FDV range between $27M and $270M FDV. A mid scenario of 500K MAUs with a 15x multiple gives us a projected FDV of $135M, which seems realistic for launch. Even the most conservative scenario, with cautious estimates at every step, still gives us an FDV of $18M. This worst-case is unlikely but it sets a clear floor. A conservative but realistic scenario would be 500K monthly users and a 15x revenue multiple → $135M FDV. That’s a reasonable expectation for a protocol just launching. Now that you have an estimate of the FDV, you can use this post to calculate the potential reward value for top 1,000 Yappers:
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