There is little impetus for a sudden revival of the manufacturing economy this deep into a business cycle with elevated rates, rising prices, and tapering consumption and wage growth. Especially with tariff impacts not yet fully realized. The status quo is malaise.

Hey 80s and 90s kids, our childhood beckons

the U.S. government will literally build a nuclear reactor on the MOON instead of releasing the Epstein files

Any time I bring up the corruption of the family in power, someone reminds me that the previous family in power was also corrupt. That is a total cop out. Pointless. Whataboutism is a force crippling evasion of the facts. Past misdeeds are never an excuse for current misdeeds.

What a lot of folks seem to miss about the 1940s yield curve control policy by the US is that the Federal Reserve AGREED TO PARTICIPATE. They were not forcefully taken over by the Treasury. There was some disagreement and negotiation between Fed/Treas over HOW to carry out YCC, but the Fed effectively abdicated control over monetary policy despite inflation risks because they felt it was the right thing to do in the face of a world war. To assist the policy, the Roosevelt Administration implemented price controls from 1940-46 and rigorously enforced them, which helped to contain inflation expectations. A necessary evil at the time. The Fed still ended up having to absorb over two thirds of the outstanding T-bill market by the mid 1940s. It wasn't until 1951 that monetary policy independence was restored.

It's hard for me to look at the UK and think they have some unique problem set that would be fine had they simply governed differently. They're just further down the path of fading empire. But make no mistake the whole developed world are all drifting in the same direction.

The idea that Bitcoin "becomes irrelevant" if it isn't used for payments is an arbitrary belief. There are many assets which excel at storing value but are not used for trivial commerce. BTC fits in that role nicely and can be extremely valuable without being money.

Biden's wage growth innit

Cullen is right. If we want timely monthly data, it will need to be revised multiple times (we do this now) until the final figure is locked in. If we want the BLS to wait to publish data until it's complete, then we must accept fewer data releases per year and only use things such as the quarterly QCEW. If we want thorough collection methods and efficient processes, we must pay to employ them, not slash resources and staff. Everything has a trade off.

Sometimes I will be looking through old chats in my email and see a message from my mom from 9 or 10 years ago and it punches me right in the gut. I miss her. Call your mom if she's still around. You don't need to have anything to say, just make the effort.❤️