In an SEC filing today, Michigan's state pension fund reported owning 300,000 shares of the Ark Bitcoin ETF as of June 30 (valued at $10.7 million). That's an increase from 100,000 shares previously reported as of March 31. Filing:

Here’s what I think about the political changes in El Salvador that would allow another presidential term: 1. Salvadorans should be able to determine their own government and vote for anyone they want, without outside interference or lectures. 2. Critics should be asked how many times they’ve visited El Salvador. I’ve noticed the answer is almost always zero. I’ve been there three times since 2023. Based on my conversations with many Salvadorans -- store owners, professionals, entrepreneurs, taxi drivers, and especially women and young people -- President Bukele is overwhelmingly viewed as a national hero, certainly on par with historical figures like Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew (who was prime minister for 31 years). When I think about someone telling the Salvadorans I’ve spoken to that they shouldn’t be able to vote the way they want “because constitution,” I laugh. 3. Investors (especially international ones) always want consistent government policies. They don’t like uncertainty. Another presidential term would mean that El Salvador’s current wave of investment and growth would expand. Multiple sectors would benefit: tourism, manufacturing, technology, and infrastructure including new housing development for Salvadorans. 4. The sovereign bond market loves Bukele. Another presidential term would mean that El Salvador’s debt, already a top global performer in the past few years, would remain attractive. This is important and would benefit the country in many ways. 5. See #1 above. Repeat.

Before today's White House digital asset report, there were two important questions for BTC traders and investors, as I posted beforehand: 1. Government buying of BTC 2. Current amount held The status of both issues is addressed in the short video below (well done by interviewer @jacqmelinek with Bo Hines, who has been very impressive and is doing a great job). Takeaways: Government buying: This will become a focus in coming months, as I’ve been saying. Crucial to watch how this develops. See my previous posts for implications including price. I continue to see this as a potential career-maker type of trade for institutional guys if it plays out optimally. Current amount held: As the months pass without disclosure, I think it’s becoming clear that this is now viewed within the administration as a sensitive issue. Ask yourself why. One reason could be that the amount held is less than the public generally believes (possibly as a result of Biden sales), or less than the administration sees as sufficient if the BTC reserve is to be used for national strategic purposes. And that gets you back to the issue of government buying. Interesting rest of 2025/early 2026 to come.

Interesting day. Takeaways soon.

Something that traders should immediately focus on tomorrow when the government's report is posted: Does it confirm how much BTC the government actually holds right now? This is important after recent speculation that a significant amount was sold at the end of the Biden administration. If the current amount held is less than anticipated, government buying could be framed as an urgent strategic imperative ("we need to rebuild the national stockpile") and quickly get momentum.

Last week. Seeing the same type of posts today.

Important...to say the least.

Don't miss the handshake photo below. This is a young Salvadoran, who is an important part of the country's BTC program, meeting her president.

The type of report below has popped up regularly about BTC for years. Whenever you see it, keep this in mind. With BTC or any asset, if a very large holder gets in motion on the sell side, it’s often because he’s aware of a large buyer in the market. That awareness can come from his own market knowledge, or from sources including sell or buy side desks, etc. In my past experience as a market maker on a big sell-side desk, we’d often get a call from a hedge fund or mutual fund who would give us a large sell order and say something like “Don’t be in a hurry, there’s a big buyer out there.” Sometimes the seller would even name the big buyer. This trading dynamic is even more relevant to BTC, where the entire market can see when a big holder “wakes up” (ie, transfers BTC). The holder knows this, of course, so it’s often likely that he’s aware of a specific large bid out there that will compensate for everyone seeing that he’s woken up. Of course this dynamic isn’t always the case. Sometimes a big holder just wants out and he doesn’t know or care about anything else. But keep the above in mind when you see this type of report.

Part of what you’re seeing right now in BTC is the market sniffing out some big, badly positioned shorts. Always an interesting situation in any asset. If you're long, you should have no sympathy. They've been helping cap the price for months.