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1/ 🚨 Jobs Numbers Plunge: Implications for Markets
- 73k July nonfarm payrolls missed expectations by 30%
- 89% cumulative downward jobs revisions from May and June reports
- Sept rate cut odds have jumped to 81% per CME Fed Watch Tool
- Asset Performance:
- BTC: -1.4%
- SPY: -1.5%
- Gold: +1.8%
- US Agg Bonds: +0.8%
2/ Implications for Crypto
Enhanced rate cut odds → positive for crypto risk appetite
- Crypto assets—particularly BTC—have displayed strong positive beta to Fed easing expectations. A pivot toward rate cuts typically reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC, supporting price upside over the medium-term.
Lower Yields & Weaker USD
- As Treasury yields retreat and the dollar softens, dollar-denominated crypto becomes more attractive to both U.S. and offshore investors seeking alternative stores of value and diversification.
Volatility & Tactical Trading Opportunities
- Crypto tends to amplify broader macro-driven swings. The miss in job numbers and shift in market expectations of Fed rate cuts may trigger heightened intraday volatility, creating short-term trading opportunities around major support/resistance levels.
Structural Growth Narrative Intact
Despite labor-market softness, the long-term thesis for crypto adoption—including DeFi, institutional adoption, tokenization—remains intact.
3/ Broader Asset Implications
- Equities: Weak payrolls bolster the case for Fed rate cuts as soon as Sept. While stocks dipped on the headline miss, lower-for-longer rates typically underpin equity rallies.
- Fixed Income: Bond yields have already retraced sharply, with the 10Y Treasury yield sliding as markets price in a higher probability of Fed easing.
Currency: The U.S. dollar index has weakened in response to diminished rate-hike prospects, providing additional tailwinds for dollar-priced commodities, emerging markets, and crypto.
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