1/ 🚨 Jobs Numbers Plunge: Implications for Markets - 73k July nonfarm payrolls missed expectations by 30% - 89% cumulative downward jobs revisions from May and June reports - Sept rate cut odds have jumped to 81% per CME Fed Watch Tool - Asset Performance: - BTC: -1.4% - SPY: -1.5% - Gold: +1.8% - US Agg Bonds: +0.8%
2/ Implications for Crypto Enhanced rate cut odds → positive for crypto risk appetite - Crypto assets—particularly BTC—have displayed strong positive beta to Fed easing expectations. A pivot toward rate cuts typically reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC, supporting price upside over the medium-term. Lower Yields & Weaker USD - As Treasury yields retreat and the dollar softens, dollar-denominated crypto becomes more attractive to both U.S. and offshore investors seeking alternative stores of value and diversification. Volatility & Tactical Trading Opportunities - Crypto tends to amplify broader macro-driven swings. The miss in job numbers and shift in market expectations of Fed rate cuts may trigger heightened intraday volatility, creating short-term trading opportunities around major support/resistance levels. Structural Growth Narrative Intact Despite labor-market softness, the long-term thesis for crypto adoption—including DeFi, institutional adoption, tokenization—remains intact.
3/ Broader Asset Implications - Equities: Weak payrolls bolster the case for Fed rate cuts as soon as Sept. While stocks dipped on the headline miss, lower-for-longer rates typically underpin equity rallies. - Fixed Income: Bond yields have already retraced sharply, with the 10Y Treasury yield sliding as markets price in a higher probability of Fed easing. Currency: The U.S. dollar index has weakened in response to diminished rate-hike prospects, providing additional tailwinds for dollar-priced commodities, emerging markets, and crypto.
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